The largest plastic packaging business in the world
This deep dive and included model is great, thanks for putting this up on substack! A few comments, questions (please forgive anything stupid here):
Your IRR is 18%, but annualized return of stock price from $55 to $182 is 12.7%, add maybe 1% for dividends, and you arrive at 14% annualized. Do you think 18% return overstates the buy case here? Please correct me if I have this wrong.
Are you concerned that management will grant large numbers of shares to themselves over the next 10 years? I think even just granting options and RSUs they have authorized (about ~15M) would negate most of the effects of repurchase you built into the model.
Thanks for the great write up. One question I had is whether falling oil and natural gas prices (as we are seeing at the moment) are in incremental positive for BERY? I guess that might be somewhat countered by the fact that the oil price falling is signalling falling demand and recession, but in isolation lower oil and gas prices lower input costs so are a good thing I think?